Even if the DPP wins the National Referendum, it's also not a bad news for the whole citizens. Before the result comes true, let's estimate the necessary cost for it. The factories and companies in the North Taiwan can go to the other cities, and the primary cost of damage is paid by them, not the central government and local governments. Of course, Taipower must provide the power for them firstly, but the human resource may have a large change to make a move. Actually, it's not easy to estimate the cost of damage, but the total cost should need NTD 50B at least.
Tainan city is one of the municipalities, which has the cheapest lands, and it is the assumed new Taiwan capital between 2019 and 2022. By the reasonable explanation, Tainan city should become the New Taiwan Capital, and the central government won't come back to Taipei city. Tainan city has many public vacant lands, and they can be used to construct the buildings of the central government. The quantities of the buildings for the central government are not less than 35, and the total cost may higher than NTD 35B for the reasonable estimations.
There are 5 years to construct these buildings for the central government, and the central budget must appropriate the construction fund, NTD 7B, every year. As the above estimations, the total cost of damage is NTD 50B + 35B = 85B, and it's not a small number. The DPP would like to stop appropriating the new fund, NTD 50B, for Taipower, and therefore the actual total cost of damage for Taiwan is NTD 290B + 85B = 375B. The cost of damage, NTD 290B, is the construction expenses for the NPP IV, and Taipower is appropriating the new fund, NTD 50B.
After the clear estimations, the citizens can understand the probable cost of damage, and it should be useful to vote the National Referendum. If the voting result is to continue constructing the NPP IV, the citizens may feel very dangerous to live in the North Taiwan. However, in such kind of situation, the central government must appropriate the new fund, NTD 50B, or Taipower cannot finish the whole construction of the NPP IV. Whether the voting result is passed or not, the result should be a best choice for the whole citizens.
The present government party is the KMT, and it may consider constructing the new capital in Taichung. Why? In the political considerations, the North Taiwan is controlled by the KMT, and the South Taiwan is controlled by the DPP. Kaohsiung is in the South Taiwan, but the land price is quite high. Besides, Kaohsiung has few public vacant lands in the civic center, and therefore it's almost impossible chose by the KMT and DPP. In the presupposition, the KMT wants to choose Taichung, and the DPP wants to choose Tainan. Which one?
In the Legislative Yuan, the KMT has 65 seats, and the DPP has 40 seats. The PFP may support the KMT's decision, and the TSU may support the DPP's decision. The other 2 seats have no party, and therefore it's not easy to predict their minds. Both of the KMT and PFP have 68 seats, and both of the DPP and TSU have 43 seats. As everyone knows, the KMT and PFP can win the voting in the Legislative Yuan, and therefore Taichung is quite possible to become the new capital. If the voting result comes true, the new total cost for the building construction should be NTD 40B.
Of course, this construction fund can be saved by the central government if it doesn't change the capital. Taipower must provide the simulation, which may choose Q2, 2013, as the period, for the North Taiwan, and the central government and citizens can consider whether the capital can still operate or not. Actually, after the new thermal plants start to operate in 2022, the North Taiwan can return to the normal. The central government needs to estimate all of the possible situations, and decides whether the capital must be changed or not.
Reference
Tainan city is one of the municipalities, which has the cheapest lands, and it is the assumed new Taiwan capital between 2019 and 2022. By the reasonable explanation, Tainan city should become the New Taiwan Capital, and the central government won't come back to Taipei city. Tainan city has many public vacant lands, and they can be used to construct the buildings of the central government. The quantities of the buildings for the central government are not less than 35, and the total cost may higher than NTD 35B for the reasonable estimations.
There are 5 years to construct these buildings for the central government, and the central budget must appropriate the construction fund, NTD 7B, every year. As the above estimations, the total cost of damage is NTD 50B + 35B = 85B, and it's not a small number. The DPP would like to stop appropriating the new fund, NTD 50B, for Taipower, and therefore the actual total cost of damage for Taiwan is NTD 290B + 85B = 375B. The cost of damage, NTD 290B, is the construction expenses for the NPP IV, and Taipower is appropriating the new fund, NTD 50B.
After the clear estimations, the citizens can understand the probable cost of damage, and it should be useful to vote the National Referendum. If the voting result is to continue constructing the NPP IV, the citizens may feel very dangerous to live in the North Taiwan. However, in such kind of situation, the central government must appropriate the new fund, NTD 50B, or Taipower cannot finish the whole construction of the NPP IV. Whether the voting result is passed or not, the result should be a best choice for the whole citizens.
The present government party is the KMT, and it may consider constructing the new capital in Taichung. Why? In the political considerations, the North Taiwan is controlled by the KMT, and the South Taiwan is controlled by the DPP. Kaohsiung is in the South Taiwan, but the land price is quite high. Besides, Kaohsiung has few public vacant lands in the civic center, and therefore it's almost impossible chose by the KMT and DPP. In the presupposition, the KMT wants to choose Taichung, and the DPP wants to choose Tainan. Which one?
In the Legislative Yuan, the KMT has 65 seats, and the DPP has 40 seats. The PFP may support the KMT's decision, and the TSU may support the DPP's decision. The other 2 seats have no party, and therefore it's not easy to predict their minds. Both of the KMT and PFP have 68 seats, and both of the DPP and TSU have 43 seats. As everyone knows, the KMT and PFP can win the voting in the Legislative Yuan, and therefore Taichung is quite possible to become the new capital. If the voting result comes true, the new total cost for the building construction should be NTD 40B.
Of course, this construction fund can be saved by the central government if it doesn't change the capital. Taipower must provide the simulation, which may choose Q2, 2013, as the period, for the North Taiwan, and the central government and citizens can consider whether the capital can still operate or not. Actually, after the new thermal plants start to operate in 2022, the North Taiwan can return to the normal. The central government needs to estimate all of the possible situations, and decides whether the capital must be changed or not.
Reference
- Wikipedia, Legislative Yuan, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legislative_Yuan
